[NTLK] ipad

[Andy Taylor]

Hi all,
I've just had a fun half hour catching up on the the NTLK views on  
this new toy. Thanks for many interesting thoughts (i addition to all  
the useful stuff I glean from you folk while I quietly lurk).

A few early thoughts.

1.  Interesting as Cultural/Marketing History.
Leaving aside whether I might be in the target market, I can't help  
but think about how successful Apple have been with their shift into  
media products in the past decade. Many of us, like me, are stuck with  
still thinking of Apple as makers of computers with UI's that're so  
intuitive that you form a quasi-personal relationship with them; I  
recall a bit of research from the early 90's which showed that folk  
were far more likely to "buy things" for their mac than their PC! But  
Mac users (and even more so Newton lovers) were always a very small   
sect. Since the resurrecting of the public image and going mainstream  
with the success of the iMac, then pulling in a much larger market  
with the iPod and building more widespread "must-have" with the  
iPhone, Apple have lured millions more into engaging with sexy UIs  
whilst making a tidy income from all the micro-selling via iTunes and  
the appstore.
Hence, I conclude those of us who like to spend a fair bit of time on  
macs creating stuff are not really in this target market; It's aimed  
primarily at people who are into to consuming and sharing/networking  
and in the process maintaining a steady trickle of spending on music,  
video, books and  apps .

In this light, I find it interesting that the entry-level US price  
$499 is pitched directly against one sub-market of the Kindle DX  
($489). I accept that the DX screen and longer battery life are far  
better for a reading experience, but I'd guess this will matter for  
*very* few people. Many who were thinking about a reader will go for  
this all-singing envy-puller instead of a monochrome reading device+,  
especially if Apple get the iBook store right.

2. Interesting as UI promulgation/inculcation.
Aside: I've recently been looking at an ebook reader to help  an  
elderly technophobic relative to continue reading with failing sight.  
having played with the Sony 600 touch, I turned to the non-touch 300  
to compare. Despite having only spent 5 mins on the touch, having to  
resort to key-pressing felt very unnatural, *particularly* when  
imagining *her* using it.
My point here is this: with the iPod touch/iPhone and now the iPad,  
Apple are disseminating a UI approach which, once-experienced, will  
make older point-click-pressbutton UIs seem very clunky and archaic.  
And, for many,  as "ungobacktoable" as MSDOS after Mac 6.0 was for us  
computer users in the late 80's!

So I see here the next step in a strategy; having made a phone-which- 
is-really-a-computer successful, make a mobile-"me time"-machine-- 
which-is-really-a-computer popular. Start  by keeping the price down  
and allow access to a minimal degree of productivity software to allow  
linkage to the computer world. So iWorks but no camera/USB etc.

ASSUMING they're successful (and let's face it; commercially, the  
recent track record is good), I think it's...

3...Interesting to consider the iPad2(...iPadN>2!)
Because of the above I see this iPad as a calculated attempt to  
develop a bridging product which they hope will kick-start whole new  
wider markets for both hardware and content.
I envisage the built in camera+phone (or at least linkage to your  
iphone) becoming standard as soon as sales take off. The "fun" market  
will cry out for it.
If iPad become a domestic feature, I expect a demand for linkage to  
static home entertainment systems. So you'd choose visual content on  
yr iPad but watch it on your big iPad-friendly HDTV. Etc, etc.
I think they'll see whether serious/business use starts to gain any  
momentum. Initially I'd envisage a plethora of stuff to enhance  
display of content , perhaps created elsewhere on a mac (already  
Keynote on iPad in http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/27/apple-ipad-first-hands-on/ 
  gives a hint a what a sexy selling tool it might become for business  
folk on the go - there's gotta be a huge market for an  
UncheesifyYourPowerpointPresentation app). If  the business side does  
take off, I'd expect more expensive models to be introduced that start  
to take input seriously. Personally I can't see the physical keyboard  
being offered seriously in the long run ~ the ergonomics just don't  
work in a mobile situation. It has to natural to expect HWR to make an  
reappearance but *only when* they can be delivered with a guarantee of  
positive press AND some acceptable way of reintroducing the stylus can  
be found. This would go sooo well with a fast-refresh low-consumption  
colour eInk screen. Then we'd have a really viable replacement for the  
work macBook/laptop. And finally, a worthy successor to the little  
green giant.

ON THE OTHER HAND.....
..... here's predicting the iPad will croak like a true iToad.

all the best,
andy taylor