Re: [NTLK] Apple Tablet Probably Imminent

On Sat, Jul 25, 2009 at 12:30 PM, Bob Carls
Dudney<kosmicdollop@saber.net> wrote:
> On 25/7/09, Michael Krzyzek wrote:
> |
>>tablet does not equal a netbook
>
> Sorry, I failed to distinguish the terms.
>
> And I misquoted him, he did say a tablet.

I am so shocked when people admit they are wrong on the internet. Good
on you. Unfortunately I'm going to dispute your next bit so if you
have some proof feel free to make me eat some crow pie.

> Also, while Apple did report a good quarter, that does not predict the future.
>
> On 25/7/09, Jon Glass wrote:
> |
>>high profit margins from consumer devices. I don't see it
>
> The analyst, Phil Cusick of Macquarie, said AT&T kicks $400 back to
> Apple for each iPhone. Seems like high profit margin to me. It would
> be similar deal for tablet subscription.
>

Any analyst that has ever given the numbers for the "kickback" to
Apple has been guessing. Some of them have been educated guesses
others have been wild ass guesses. But to date no one outside of AT&T
and Apple knows what the deal is. If you really want to go by analysts
the kick back to Apple stopped after the 3G was released. I don't know
if that is true or false. But the bottom line is that without insider
information all the analysts can do is guess. Informed, educated or
otherwise.

Look at the history of the Apple "Phone." It has been rumored for
years before it was actually released. Apple denied it for those same
years. Every single one of the people that said it is coming any day
now was wrong in the form, features and scope of what Apple did. So if
Apple does a tablet (very doubtful) or a netbook (a bit less doubtful)
I don't think that it will be what everyone expects them to be.

As to Apple having a good quarter not being a prediction on the
future. That is spot on. However Apple has been very conservative on
their guidance for the next quarter. In fact they had some flak for it
from CNBC, even though they have done this for years. They could be
wrong though, next quarter could be a complete blood bath in losses
for Apple. The flip side is that Apple has 31 billion dollars to burn.
They have no debts and can survive for quite a while in the red. I do
not think they would want to do that but I think they would need
several quarters to even consider low margin computers. This is the
thing analysts don't get, Apple is about margin and not market share.
They fought that battle in the nighties and lost, badly.

The other side of the coin is that the iPhone and iPod Touch are the
tablet/netbook computers that Apple is making now and they are selling
like mad. What can netbooks do that the iPhone can't? Mass text entry.
Bigger screen to view websites. That's about it. What can the iPhone
do that netbooks can't? Fit in your pocket. If someone doesn't need to
be writing or programming for work they have no need of a tablet or
netbook. The bigger screen would be nice for browsing but the iPhone
browsing experience is far better than good enough.

Of course I'm sure tomorrow that Apple is going to announce the
tablet/keyboard netbook. Buy the tablet if that is all you want, buy
both if you want a netbook. Detach the keyboard and use the screen as
a huge remote!

-- 
Michael
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