If you are interested in becoming the standard, and selling to the masses
the only important factor appears to be cost. When palm came out with the
m100 for a little over $100 I was amazed at the number of my associates who
bought a PDA for the first time. They popped up everywhere. It wasn't too
long before some of them began to realize the limitations of the device they
had bought as many filled their limited memories by beaming each other games
and such, but most were perfectly happy with their phone book, calendar,
game boy all in one despite the tiny screen and poor graphics. I have
noticed that many of the professionals I work with started with the smaller
model and seemed to trade up gradually working up to the m500 (or whatever)
but they were a small minority. The problem with palm was most people didn't
trade up and are still carrying the older cheaper model.
Same with PCs. I know so many people who bought the HP desktop at walmart
for $699 because they wanted a computer. Great startup model, it even came
with a printer and can burn CDs. Sure it runs slower and has less hard drive
space and memory but it was cheap. Sure they quietly gripe about how some
cheap third party program keeps crashing or how many coasters they have
burned and how much trouble they have connecting their digital camera but
few of them have any thoughts of trading up for a faster, better model.
The masses weren't and still aren't ready for the price tag a new apple PDA
would cost even if it did play quicktime movies, run a limited version of OS
X and have excellent handwriting recognition, and apple can't depend on the
small percent of professionals who might be willing to drop $500 plus (I've
read as high as $899 as an estimate) for such a device to make it cost
effective. You can check the relatively poor sales of palms newer pricy
upscale models. No one would be happy if apple came out with a new palm
clone device and few will be willing to buy a pricy device that does
everything we expect from an apple product. By the time the technology is
cheap enough for apple to enter the handheld market the void will be filled
by someone who can build them cheaper (albeit not as functional). That's why
I would be surprised to see apple re-enter the PDA market. How many on this
list bought the newton when it first came out versus how many bought one
when they became available for less than a few hundred dollars on ebay?
Two more cents to the pot.
-Chet
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