I don't think a kidney or two would be sufficient to pay for what you've
just outlined there, at least not in the time frame of 2003 ;-)
Particularly problematic is the integration of multiple RF technologies
into one device. A transceiver for Iridium alone based on today's
technology would fill up the existing Newton MP2K already, leaving no
space for anything else. Antennae for multiple RF of such a wide
frequency range alone is already a challenge, let alone built-in, let
alone inside a titanium shell.
Then again power consumption is yet a another story. It is one thing to
emit frequencies in the range up to 20 KHz (iPod) to drive a headset
(range: a few centimeters). It is another thing to emit enough UHF in
the GHz range to reach a base station in an Urban area where concrete
buildings need to be penetrated, let alone to reach a satellite even in
LEO.
There are two emerging technologies that can help to achieve at least
some of these requirements, but they are not ready for prime time yet:
- SDR, software defined radio, a technology where all RF operating
parameters are controlled and configurable by software, not expected to
be available for another 4-5 years. And still antenna design remains a
problem even with SDR.
- MFC, micro fuel cells, not expected to be ready for more than just a
portable charging device for another 4 to 5 years. Miniturisation is
still a challenge.
I suppose the Newton you described, would be a Newton 2007 or so at
best ;-)
Also, I can't see why any product would be successful by combining all
the possible alternative technologies in one device, many of which are
rather expensive and not even of concern to most people.
Apple has recently refocussed their market strategy towards consumers.
Serving consumers means to streamline the portfolio such that it appeals
to the largest possible group of customers and leave specialist features
or items out or at least make them optional in form of accessories for
the fewer people who are interested in those.
I would not envisage any PDA vendor to do anyting with Iridium because
Iridium truly *is* a turkey. Consider this: some 48 satellites, each of
which cost in excess of a billion USD for a total of 20000 or so
customers who would most of the time roam in a terrestrial network and
only use the satellite when in areas not covered by any terrestrial
network. If that wasn't a turkey business plan, well then I don't know
what a turkey is. It would probably have been cheaper to put wireless
repeaters on comms buoys all over the Pacific and the deserts, which are
the only places where satellite networks are really the only option.
Iridi-culous!
And UMTS may yet turn out to become the next Betamax or the next
Iridium. Who needs broadband cellular communications of that scale ???
It would be far more efficient to stay with 2.5G wireless and add
broadband in form of cheap 802.11b networks *in places where it
matters*. If you are downtown, yes there you and many others may well
have a sound requirement for wireless broadband - WiFi can deliver that.
If you are driving through the country side in a very low populated
area, you are unlikely to require that much bandwidth and if you do, you
can have it using 2.5G and pay for it accordingly.
Bluetooth is another technology that has been hyped for many years and
we have yet to see it being widely adopted.
It is therefore most likely that any of those technologies would be
optional add-ons to a Newton 2002 if at all.
As WiFi has reached a critical mass by now I would think that, yes, if I
was the product manager for a new PDA, I would probably be in favour of
making WiFi the default and thereby built-in communication facility
while not even bothering with a 10baseT option. Same goes for USB versus
serial/parallel, not entirely sure about Firewire, but IrDA definitely
yes, and if it is only to be able to exchange data with the Palm world.
Modem is probably still a must have, unfortunately. And any cellular
device would likely be in form of a PCMCIA card. Same goes for video out
(i.e. video-out PCMCIA card for the Sharp Zaurus).
However, I would envisage that the cellular PCMCIA card would be better
utilised than those cards are utilised in any devices today. I would
envisage that the PDA has enough CPU power and the software for voice
telephony, both through a cellular transceiver card and through VoIP via
the Airport connection to a VoIP gateway provider.
With voice recognition I would be careful to avoid the kind of
misperception leading to the turkey image in the eyes of those David
Coursey types. If you raise the expectation that the device can be
entirely controlled through voice navigation, then probably it will soon
flop and make it onto the turkey list. Instead, voice recognition should
be confined to very specific tasks like Mac speakable items or recalling
a Name from the Names app and dialing a phone number, then gradually
evolve further from there.
The kind of master-slave relationship you describe between the PDA and a
slave-add-on, I would foresee to be between the PDA and a notebook
computer instead. I.e. Your notebook or perhaps desktop sits somewhere
and acts as a master for your PDA, which can access it transparently
either directly through the Airport if in range, or over a public
internet access point, for example, you sit in a cafe at Starbucks with
your Newton wirelessly online through WiFi and it connects transparently
to your desktop at home - you'd be able to utilise most of the resources
on your desktop just as if they were on your Newton.
Also, it could well be a good market strategy to have two lines of
models, one more consumer oriented line like iMac or iBook and one more
professional oriented line like the G4. In other words a kind of iNewt
and a pro-Newt, but it would not be wise to desgin and market them as
accessories in respect of each other.
In any event, I would already be more than happy to get a Newton, just
like the MP2K, with a bit more memory, smart media slot, USB, Airport
and perhaps a color screen and a bit more powerful CPU all in a slimmer
case, but with the same screen size. This seems absolutely feasible
today, but probably we will have to wait another 5 years before even
such a slidely modernised Newton replacement will hit the market if at
all. After all, there was never any replacement for the Lisp Machine
either. Waiting for this kind of thing may turn out to be like waiting
for the Messiah. ;-)
rgds
BK
On Saturday, December 1, 2001, at 03:23 , Oliver Brose wrote:
> Make this a Newton 2003
>
> Built in:
> - improved HWR
> - CellPhone (GPRS/UMTS), with (wireless) headset, internal antenna,
> Iridium
> (how do they call that by now?) optional with an external antenna.
> - Camera
> - FireWire2 (for iPod access ;))
> - iPod2 compatible. iPod2 features a 20GB HD and a 20h battery, MP can
> take
> advantage of that battery via FireWire.
> - USB(2)
> - VGA/FBAS-out (miniport)
> - InfraRed/Bluetooth
> - AirPort2, internal antenna
> - Any up to date cardslot
> - Speech recognition
> - 256MB RAM
> - 333Mhz processor
> - LiPoly battery, or better, hot swappable, obscene capacity
> - Fingerprint/Voiceprint/Breathprint sensor instead of PIN
> - Display-door, detachable, built in Li-battery charged from the main
> battery, when disconnected using bluetooth to exchange data with MP,
> as..
> ..there is a sensor-keyboard on the inside! Internal antenna.
> - Door may also feature a scanner
> - JOG-dial and/or Thumbstick (troublesome! Where to put it?!)
> - Display may be something SciFi, maybe real 3D. This could e.g. help
> working with a database and organizing files, enhance games/VR-content.
> - backside features some sort of strapping mechanism, to attach the MP
> to
> belt/arm/clothes.
> - OS to feature *everything*, peer-to-peer with any given computer,
> especially the "homebase", Quicktime, teachable remote...
> - Optional "SE" display-door. SE door features its own display (smaller,
> lower res, no BL, no color) 2MB RAM, 33Mhz processor, battery,
> bluetooth.
> The display would make it a little thicker than the standard door. There
> would be a smaller click-in stylus in it. The SE auto-syncs
> names/dates/selected notes with the MP. It can be used as a
> shirtpocket-PDA
> (mass appeal), but also as an extension to the MP (dual screen).
> Standard
> D-door and SE can be clicked together, all three parts can be used at
> the
> same time.
> E.g. you could climb up a ladder in a library, scan a book with the
> standard-d, data is stored in the MP on the table, but also appears on
> the
> SE, and you can cut out what is not needed right there on the ladder.
>
>> And how would you like it to be (realistically) ?
>>
>> - Should it be smaller or larger, same size but slimmer ?
>
> Screen: Same size, doubeled resolution, color(16bit).
> Case: Slimmer, still with a palm-rest on top and bottom, but "a little
> less"
> all around, but not too much.
> Weight: Less, but still enough to feel good, well balanced.
>
>> - Should it have the same format ? colour screen ? dark green case or
>> silver like the iBook ?
>
> I guess it should be made of something super-durable. Safe plastic, or
> titanium. There should still be an anti-slip coating though, on some
> relevant parts of the case.
>
>> And how would those features be realised ?
>
> By Apple ;)
>
>> How much would it cost ?
>
> A kidney, possibly two.
>
>> Would it be well received ?
>
> Apple expands it's market share to 60% within three years, as some
> people
> still just want a digital datebook.
>
> Just what's on my mind,
>
>
> Oliver :)
>
>
> --
> Die Lieblingsfrage der Deutschen lautet: Darf man schon wieder lachen?,
> nicht: Darf man schon wieder denken?
>
> Roger Willemsen in "Die Woche"
>
>
> --
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